The space economy is growing rapidly, and countries are racing to build spaceports for launching satellites and rockets. However, these are complex and expensive projects to undertake at a time when technology and the economics of space are evolving quickly. New entrants will have to compete with strong incumbents, and many will operate for years before generating their target return on investment (ROI).
For that reason, spaceport developers need to consider a variety of factors, including pricing, operations, and talent. Some of these factors are unique to individual facilities, while others apply to all spaceports. We have developed a framework for how to think through these factors, giving commercial and public-sector organizations a structured approach to building spaceports with the attributes required to survive and thrive amid increased competition.
The next decade will reshape the competitive landscape for spaceports, but the fundamental principles of business will still apply. Facilities must effectively differentiate themselves, make a compelling case to their customers (launch service providers), and adopt a sustainable financial model. To secure their future over the long term, spaceport developers need to choose the right path today.
The Launch Market Is at an Inflection Point
The number of space launches has risen steadily over the past two decades, with 186 total orbital launches worldwide in 2022, the highest number in a single year. And more growth is coming. Low earth orbit (LEO) and medium earth orbit (MEO) satellites—which are less expensive and easier to launch than traditional geostationary orbit (GEO) satellites—are a key driver of this growth. They are being launched at a record pace, often in constellations.
The number of satellites launched has steadily increased over the past decade, increasing fivefold in the last five years alone. (See Exhibit 1.) Our analysis of industry data indicates that there will be at least 24,000 satellites launched from 2023 through 2030, and that figure could reach nearly 40,000 depending on the progress of planned megaconstellations in LEO. Space exploration is gathering pace as well, with 170 missions projected from 2022 through 2031, more than three times the number that launched in the past decade.
The launch industry is growing nearly as fast, and capital is following. Although the market saw a dip in overall investment activity in 2022—especially for startups—nearly 430 companies received some investment that year, and the ten largest deals accounted for $700 million in funding, an 18% increase over the amount in 2021. Amid the hundreds of startups emerging in the new space economy, the market remains characterized by a handful of companies, such as SpaceX, that have strong positions. And these companies are rushing to secure capacity at capable spaceports.
Spaceports, therefore, are a linchpin in the space economy and will help determine its growth trajectory. Many entities, in both the public and private sectors, are chasing the opportunity to build new spaceports, but there are constraints on how many can succeed.
The Competitive Landscape for Spaceports Is Dynamic and Challenging
Approximately 53 spaceports currently operate worldwide; most are located in China, Europe, Russia, and the US. Roughly 30 new sites have been proposed—including at least 20 that will support orbital launches.1 Many of the new spaceports are in countries that have not had a large presence in space historically, such as Australia, Indonesia, and Peru.
Governments often view spaceport development as a means not only to boost the economy but also to achieve broader national objectives, such as establishing sovereignty in the increasingly important space domain. For this reason, new spaceport development will continue regardless of volatility in the launch market or investment climate. Yet the competition to secure customers will be fierce. New entrants will have to compete with strong incumbents and have the wherewithal to potentially operate for years before delivering hoped-for ROI.