Four in ten hours currently devoted to unpaid housework and caring responsibilities could be automated within the decade, according to research from the University of Oxford and Ochanomizu University, Japan, published today [22 Feb] in the journal PLOS ONE.

Dr Lulu Shi, postdoctoral researcher, Oxford Internet Institute and departmental lecturer, Oxford’s Department of Education, says, ‘Our research suggests, on average, around 39% of our time spent on doing domestic work can be automated, the degree of automation varies very much across different types of work.

‘Only 28% of care work, including activities such as teaching your child, accompanying your child, or taking care of an elderly family member, was predicted to be automated. Yet 44% of housework, including cooking, cleaning, and shopping, was thought to be automatable.’

The research team asked AI experts from the UK and Japan what difference automation was going to make to housework and other unpaid work. The experts predicted, on average, 39% of time spent on any domestic work task could be automated within the next ten years.

The predictions of the likely impact of automation for different domestic tasks varied considerably, with grocery shopping seen as most likely to benefit.

On average, experts predicted, time currently spent on grocery shopping would fall by nearly 60% in 10 years. Other repetitive domestic tasks, such as cooking and cleaning, were also seen as ripe for automation with experts predicting that time people currently spend on these tasks will be reduced by 46% in the next ten years.

Meanwhile, respondents believed time spent on physical childcare would only be reduced by 21% as a result of automation.

Ekaterina Hertog, associate professor in AI and Society, Oxford Internet Institute and Ethics in AI Institute, Oxford Department of Philosophy, adds, ‘We find male and female experts had different expectations about automation of domestic work, potentially reflecting the differences in their lived experiences with technology as well as their involvement in housework and care work.’

The AI experts based in the UK and those in Japan offered different visions of the future, according to the study. UK-based experts thought automation could reduce domestic work time by 42%, compared with 36% reduction expected by Japanese respondents.

The authors maintain this may be because technology is associated more with labour replacement in the UK.

Nobuko Nagase, professor of Labour Economics and Social Policy at Ochanomizu University, notes, ‘In Japan, most AI experts are male. As male experts in Japan expect domestic automation to save much less time compared to their counterparts in the UK this may mean that research and development in this area is not receiving the attention it deserves and household automation may be delayed in Japan. This is alarming for me, as a woman, and I say we need to expand the number of female AI experts.’